Economic Scan - Alberta: 2023
Demographics
Highlights
- Seniors aged 65 and over accounted for 15.1% of the total population in Alberta in 2023. Nationally, seniors accounted for 18.9% of the total population.
- In 2023, older workers aged 55 to 64 years accounted for 14.3% of the working age population in Alberta. This is lower than the proportion of older workers nationally, which is 15.8%.
- Young individuals aged 15 to 24 made up 15.0% of the working age population in 2023. The unemployment rate for young workers was 12.3% in 2023, a 1.5 percentage point increase from 2022.
- Much like the rest of Canada, Alberta is dealing with the effects of a rapidly ageing population. However, Alberta has a comparatively young population, with a median age of 38.1 years old, compared to the national median age of 40.6 years old.
4.7 million people lived in Alberta in 2023, a yearly increase of 4.1%. Alberta accounts for 36.1% of the W-T region's population and 11.7% of Canada's population.
The Indigenous population comprised about 5.5% of the total Alberta population in 2023. Indigenous people had a higher participation rate (71.1%), but a lower employment rate (63.7%) compared to the total population. The unemployment rate for the Indigenous population was also higher (10.5%) than the provincial total (5.9%).
In Alberta, 27.8% of the population was a part of a visible minority in the 2021 Census. The highest proportion is South Asian (7.1%), followed by Filipino (5.2%), Black (4.3%) and Chinese (3.9%). Alberta had the second highest proportion of visible minorities in the W-T.
In 2023, about 27.0% of Alberta's population were landed immigrants. This was the second highest proportion of landed immigrants in the W-T region, behind only BC (32.4%). Landed immigrants had an equal unemployment rate (5.9%) to the total population. Immigrants who had landed within 5 years had the highest unemployment rate at 9.7%.
According to the 2022 Canadian Survey on Disability, 27.5% Alberta's population aged 15 and over were persons with disabilities (PWD). The unemployment rate for PWD aged 25-64 was 8.9% compared to 7.9% for people without a disability. PWD's also have an employment rate that is 10.9 percentage points lower than that of people without a disability.
Source : Statistics Canada - Canadian Survey on Disability (CSD) 2022.
Labour Market Conditions
In 2023...
Employment increased (+3.6%)
Unemployment rate was mostly unchanged (+0.1pp)
Participation rate stayed the same (-0.2pp)
Employment rate remained unchanged (-0.2pp)
Show data table
| Year | Unemployment Rate (%) |
|---|---|
| 2013 | 4.6 |
| 2014 | 4.8 |
| 2015 | 6.1 |
| 2016 | 8.2 |
| 2017 | 8.0 |
| 2018 | 6.5 |
| 2019 | 6.8 |
| 2020 | 11.3 |
| 2021 | 8.6 |
| 2022 | 5.8 |
| 2023 | 5.9 |
- Early in 2023, oil and gas sector performance was below expectations. Production has now risen to record levels as the Trans Mountain pipeline nears completion. GDP in the oil and gas sector is forecasted to rise 2.1% in 2024.
- Business investment is projected to rise by 1.5% in 2023 and 0.6% in 2024. Growth this year is due to elevated non-residential investment, particularly from the energy sector.
- Residential investment is expected to contract as higher mortgage rates and housing prices cool the housing market.
Economic Conditions
Alberta's Economic Drivers in 2023
Strong population growth
High oil and gas sector production
Increased non-residential capital investment
Source : The Conference Board of Canada. Provincial Five-Year Outlook. November 2023.
Show data table
| Year | Forecasted GDP Growth Rate |
|---|---|
| 2023 | 2.2% |
| 2024 | 1.5% |
| 2025 | 2.8% |
| 2026 | 2.6% |
Reviewing 2023...
- Alberta's real GDP growth has fallen since the highs of 2022 but remains robust at 2.2% in 2023. Amidst wider economic sluggishness, growth is expected to continue to slow in 2024 to 1.5%.
- Sluggish employment growth coupled with strong population gains is expected to push the unemployment rate to a peak of around 6.4% by Q2 2024.
- September 2023 was the only month over the year where monthly employment decreased. Employment in Alberta has proven to be resilient in the face of high inflation, rising interest rates and economic slowdowns.
- Amid general employment growth, many sectors have instead faced acute labour shortages which have led to disruptions in services, especially in the health care and transportation sectors.
- The Government of Alberta has unveiled the new round of the Alberta is Calling campaign which looks to attract new skilled trades workers. The province is attempting to strengthen the industry as it recovers from job instability caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and retiring baby boomers.
Risks to the Alberta Economy in 2024
- Continuing drought conditions are expected to make 2024's wildfire season another difficult year that could see the evacuation of thousands and millions of dollars of damage.
- Business confidence in the province continues to trend downwards. Shortages of skilled labour and high input costs were some of the top concerns.
Regional Issues
Migration
A strong economy and relatively affordable cost of living, coupled with the province's Alberta is Calling campaign has made Alberta an attractive destination for interprovincial migrants. In 2022/2023 net nterprovincial migration to Alberta was 56,245.
Industry Trends
Show data table
| Industry (NAICS) | Employment Change('000s) | Percent Change(%) |
|---|---|---|
| Professional, scientific and technical services | +22.7 | 10.4 |
| Health care and social assistance | +15.3 | +4.9 |
| Transportation and warehousing | +15.1 | +11.6 |
| Manufacturing | +14.2 | +10.9 |
| Public administration | +5.8 | +5.4 |
| Finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing | +4.7 | +3.8 |
| Construction | +4.1 | +1.7 |
| Accommodation and food services | +3.9 | +3.0 |
| Other services (except public administration) | +3.7 | +3.9 |
| Business, building and other support services | +1.9 | +2.6 |
| Agriculture | +1.5 | +3.5 |
| Information, culture and recreation | +0.3 | +0.4 |
| Utilities | +0.0 | +0.0 |
| Wholesale and retail trade | -0.5 | -0.1 |
| Forestry, fishing, mining, quarrying, oil and gas | -1.2 | -0.9 |
| Educational services | -6.4 | -3.8 |
- A strong economy in Alberta has led to job gains in the vast majority of industries, with the exception of forestry, fishing, mining, quarrying, oil and gas (-1,200 jobs), wholesale and retail trade (-500 jobs) and educational services (-6,400 jobs).
- The professional, scientific, and technical services industry gained 22,700 jobs in 2023, the most of any industry for a second year. Short term prospects for the sector look promising, as many projects have been announced across the province.
- Although the oil and gas sector had a record year in regard to oil production, employment decreased by 1,200 jobs in 2023.
- The health care and social assistance sector gained 15,300 jobs annually in 2023. The industry will have to continue to grow rapidly in the short term to alleviate acute labour shortages that have impacted nearly every economic region in Alberta.
Regional Economic Conditions
- Robust economic growth led to increases in employment in every economic region in Alberta.
- Edmonton had the highest regional employment growth in 2023, at 4.8%. The unemployment rate remained relatively stable, growing by 0.1 percentage points.
- Lethbridge-Medicine Hat had the second highest employment growth in 2023. Growth has been supported by several energy projects in the region. According to Economic Development Lethbridge, as of June 2023 there were around 6,000 job vacancies in the region.
Employment Change by Economic Region, 2023
Show data table
| Economic Region | Percent Change(%) | Employment Change('000s) |
|---|---|---|
| Edmonton | +4.8 | +39.9 |
| Lethbridge-Medicine Hat | +4.5 | +6.7 |
| Alberta | +3.6 | +85.0 |
| Wood Buffalo-Cold Lake | +3.5 | +2.6 |
| Banff-Jasper-Rocky Mountain House and Athabasca-Grande Prairie-Peace River | +3.5 | +6.4 |
| Camrose-Drumheller | +2.7 | +2.7 |
| Red Deer | +2.6 | +2.8 |
| Calgary | +2.5 | +23.8 |
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