Economic Scan - British Columbia: 2026
Demographics
Highlights
- In 2025, the number of people aged 65 years and over in B.C. increased by 3.4% compared to 2024, making up 20.5% of the population, exceeding the national rate of 19.5%.
- The number of youth (aged 15-24 years) decreased by 1.6% compared to 2024. Youth accounted for 11.7% of the total provincial population, compared to 14.5% nationally.
- The number of people in the core aged working group (25-54 years) increased by 0.4% annually, representing 42.3% of the population, compared to 48.5% nationally.
- Since 2024, the province's population grew by 0.5%. The slowing population growth is primarily due to federal changes to immigration policy.
In 2025, the population of B.C. reached 5.7 million, an increase of 0.5% compared to 2024, lower than the national growth rate of 0.9%.
In 2025, the unemployment rate for Indigenous people in B.C. was 11.5%, up 1.4 percentage points when compared to 2024. The unemployment rate for Indigenous people was 5.5 percentage points higher than that of non-Indigenous people.
Of all the provinces in the W-T region, B.C. has the highest proportion of people that are visible minorities ( 40.7%), The proportion of visible minorities in B.C. is higher than the national proportion of 32.2%.
In 2025, B.C.'s labour force included approximately 1 million landed immigrants, an increase of 4.9% compared to 2024. In contrast, the number of Canadian-born workers decreased by 2.2% over the same period. Immigration will slow as the federal government has introduced reduced immigration targets.
In 2022, 26.3% of people in B.C. aged 15 and over identified as a person with disabilities (PWD). In 2024, the unemployment rate for peoples with disabilities in B.C. was 7.6%, compared to 4.6% for the rest of the population. The labour market participation rate for people with disabilities was 50.7% compared to 68.5% for people without disabilites.
Source: Statistics Canada — Canadian Survey on Disability (CSD) 2022; Labour Force Survey and Labour Market Socioeconomic Indicators (2024).Labour Market Conditions
In 2025...
Employment grew slightly (1.1%)
Unemployment is up sharply (13.3%)
Participation rate decreased (65.2% to 65.0%)
Employment rate decreased (61.6% to 60.9%)
Show data table
| Year | Unemployment Rate (%) |
|---|---|
| 2015 | 6.2 |
| 2016 | 6.1 |
| 2017 | 5.3 |
| 2018 | 4.6 |
| 2019 | 4.8 |
| 2020 | 9.1 |
| 2021 | 6.6 |
| 2022 | 4.6 |
| 2023 | 5.2 |
| 2024 | 5.6 |
| 2025 | 6.2 |
- The unemployment rate in B.C. increased by 0.6 percentage points in 2025, following a rise of 0.4 percentage points in 2024. While overall employment grew in 2025, the number of new job seekers entering the labour market exceeded the number of available jobs.
- Business confidence in 2025 was relatively subdued, which softened hiring intentions for many firms.
- Although trade tensions with the U.S. negatively impacted the labour market, they also led to an increase in export activity in B.C., as businesses and government seek alternative markets to diversify trade.
Economic Conditions
British Columbia's Economic Drivers in 2025
Economic uncertainty brought on by threat of U.S. tariffs
Several major projects approved for fast tracked permitting
Decreased labour market growth from lower immigration targets
Source: Signal49 Research. Provincial Five-Year Outlook. October 2025.
Show data table
| Year | Forecasted GDP Growth Rate |
|---|---|
| 2025 | 1.2% |
| 2026 | 1.7% |
| 2027 | 2.1% |
| 2028 | 2.0% |
Reviewing 2025...
- The forecasted GDP growth in B.C. in 2025 was 1.2%. GDP growth is expected to increase to 1.7% in 2026 and to reach 2.1% in 2027.
- The B.C. Public Service was on strike for eight weeks, from September 2 until October 26. The strike involved about 36,000 members of the B.C. General Employees Union (BCGEU) and had significant impacts for various sectors. The outcome from the strike will likely influence contracts for other public sector workers that are heading into negotiations in the near term.
- The province approved 19 major resource projects for a fast tracked permitting and approval process in response to the economic uncertainty caused by the threat of U.S. tariffs. In addition, the federal government announced five major projects in the province that have been referred to the Major Projects Office for an expedited review.
Risks to the British Columbia Economy in 2026
- The specter of additional U.S. tariffs and the mandatory review of the Canada – US – Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) could negatively impact business confidence and private sector investment in the province.
- The forestry sector will likely see continued layoffs and curtailments, which will have disproportionate effects on small municipalities and surrounding rural economies.
- Decreased immigration due to reduced federal immigration targets will likely impact economic growth, as the labour market adjusts to fewer people in the labour force.
Regional Issues
Migration
From 2024 to 2025, B.C. experienced a net loss of 2,392 people through inter-provincial migration. However, during the same period, the province added 69,800 people through international immigration. Immigration is expected to slow in the coming years as the federal government has introduced lower immigration targets from 2025-2027.
Industry Trends
Show data table
| Industry (NAICS) | Employment Change ('000s) | Percent Change (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Construction | +15.4 | +6.2 |
| Professional, scientific and technical services | +13.6 | +4.5 |
| Manufacturing | +7.5 | +4.2 |
| Wholesale and retail trade | +7.1 | +1.7 |
| Finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing | +5.4 | +2.9 |
| Educational services | +5.2 | +2.4 |
| Accommodation and food services | +4.1 | +2.2 |
| Public administration | +3.4 | +2.2 |
| Health care and social assistance | +3.3 | +0.8 |
| Transportation and warehousing | +0.7 | +0.4 |
| Business, building and other support services | +0.3 | +0.3 |
| Agriculture | -0.7 | -4.1 |
| Utilities | -3.6 | -20.1 |
| Other services (except public administration) | -6.2 | -5.2 |
| Forestry, fishing, mining, quarrying, oil and gas | -9.2 | -17.3 |
| Information, culture and recreation | -14.1 | -9.6 |
- Employment in the construction sector increased by 15,400 jobs (+6.2%). Several recently announced major projects should help support non-residential construction job creation going into 2026.
- Employment in the public administration sector increased in 2025 by 3,400 jobs (+2.2%). This employment growth happened despite a public service hiring freeze that the provincial government initiated early in the year.
- Employment in the forestry, fishing, mining, quarrying, oil and gas sector decreased by 9,200 jobs (-17.3%). The forestry sector continues to be negatively impacted by U.S. trade tariffs and duties, a shrinking timber, pulp and fiber supply, insect infestations, wildfires, and measures to protect old-growth forests.
Regional Economic Conditions
- The Northeast economic region had the highest employment growth of all the regions on a percentage basis, adding 1,200 jobs (+3.4%) compared to last year. Several major industrial projects are taking place in the region.
- Employment in the North Coast and Nechako region decreased by 4,600 jobs (-10.1%) in 2025. Employment should increase going forward, as the region is home to several new major energy and mining projects.
Employment Change by Economic Region, 2025
Show data table
| Economic Region | Percent Change (%) | Employment Change ('000s) |
|---|---|---|
| Northeast | +3.4 | +1.2 |
| Thompson-Okanagan | +2.8 | +8.4 |
| Lower Mainland-Southwest | +1.7 | +32.2 |
| British Columbia | +1.1 | +32.2 |
| Vancouver Island and Coast | +0.6 | +2.6 |
| Kootenay | -2.9 | -2.5 |
| Cariboo | -5.9 | -4.9 |
| North Coast and Nechako | -10.1 | -4.6 |
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