Economic Scan - Manitoba: 2023
Demographics
Highlights
- Contrary to national trends, Manitoba had a higher proportion of children aged 0 to 14 ( 18.2%) than people 65 years and older (16.8%) in 2023.
- The proportion of Manitoba's working age population (ages 15 to 64) increased slightly on an annual basis, reaching 65.0% of the total population in 2023.
- The proportion of seniors (aged 65 and over) in Manitoba is forecasted to increase from 16.8% in 2023 to 19.7% in 2043.
- International migration is forecasted to be the main driver of population growth in Manitoba over the next two decades.
1.4 million people lived in Manitoba in 2023, an increase of 2.9% from 2022. Manitoba accounts for 3.6% of Canada's total population.
The Indigenous population accounts for 18.1% of the total population in Manitoba. Indigenous employment improved 0.5 percentage points in 2023 to 59.8%, however remained 4.1 % below that of non-indigenous peoples (63.9%). Employment was the lowest for young Indigenous workers (15-24 years), sitting at 52.2% in 2023 when compared to older Indigenous workers (25-54 years) 74.1%.
In 2021, 22.2% of Manitoba's population belonged to a visible minority. South Asian and Filipino Manitobans accounted for the largest share the province's visible minorities. Manitoba has the highest proportion of Indigenous (18.1%) and Filipino (7.2%) populations in the country.
In 2023, immigrants exhibited an employment rate of 67.9%, surpassing that of non-immigrants by 5.7%. Recent arrivals faced the highest unemployment rate at 8.4% in contrast to those who had landed more than 5 and 10 years prior, with rates of 5.0% and 3.0% respectively. Manitoba's primary source of newcomers in 2023 was the Philippines (27.3%) and India (12.5%).
According to the 2022 Canadian Survey on Disability, 25.7% of Manitoba's population, aged 25 to 64, had one or more disabilities. A higher proportion of women with disabilities were employed (65.9%) than men (61.8%). Both figures outpace the national proportions of 61.1% and 62.8% respectively. The survey also identified a wage gap for person with disabilities in the province, as the median after-tax income for residents with disabilities was $35,160 in 2022, nearly $8,000 below residents without disabilities.
Source : Statistics Canada - Canadian Survey on Disability (CSD) 2022.
Labour Market Conditions
In 2023...
Employment increased (+2.5%)
Unemployment increased (+9.0%)
Participation rate increased (+0.4 pp to 67.1%)
Employment rate increased (0.1 pp to 63.8%)
Show data table
| Year | Unemployment Rate (%) |
|---|---|
| 2013 | 5.4 |
| 2014 | 5.5 |
| 2015 | 5.7 |
| 2016 | 6.1 |
| 2017 | 5.4 |
| 2018 | 5.9 |
| 2019 | 5.3 |
| 2020 | 8.1 |
| 2021 | 6.5 |
| 2022 | 4.6 |
| 2023 | 4.8 |
- In 2023, Manitoba's unemployment rate saw its first increase since 2020, reaching 4.8%. Nevertheless, it remained the second lowest in the country and well below the national average. Moving forward, the rate is expected to however around 4.6% in 2024.
- Increases in the Manitoba's participation rate supported growth the province's labour force (+20,100 individuals).
- However, gains in the labour force outpaced employment growth, as the province added +17,100 new jobs in 2023, leading to an increase (+2,900) in unemployment.
Economic Conditions
Manitoba's Economic Drivers in 2023
Reduced inflation
High cost of borrowing
Robust population growth
Source : The Conference Board of Canada. Provincial Five-Year Outlook. November 2023.
Show data table
| Year | Forecasted GDP Growth Rate |
|---|---|
| 2023 | 2.1% |
| 2024 | 0.5% |
| 2025 | 2.5% |
| 2026 | 2.3% |
- While other provinces continue to struggle with the rising cost of living, Manitoba's year-end inflation rate dropped to 0.8%, well below the Bank of Canada's 2% target and the country's lowest. However, the slowing inflation rate may suggest a potential economic slowdown in the province.
- After experiencing declining real GDP growth rates for several years, the province is projected to sustain conservative growth of 0.5% in 2024, followed by a rebound to over 2.0% in 2025 and 2026. Global economic forces such as ongoing aggressive interest rate increases, and continued supply chain disruptions have both contributed to the subdued growth expected in 2024.
- Persistent high interest rates impacted Manitoba businesses in 2023, by affecting their ability to spend and invest. Businesses faced higher costs when borrowing for expansion or capital investment. The incentive to steer income from spending to saving hasn't been this significant for more than 20 years.
- Fortunately, Manitoba's robust population growth has helped counteract some of the effects of elevated borrowing costs on consumer demand.
Reviewing 2023...
Risks to the Manitoba Economy in 2024
- Difficulty acquiring skilled labour.
- Increase to the cost of raw materials.
- Access to cash flow and capital.
- Volatility in commodity market.
Regional Issues
Migration
There were almost half as many people coming to Manitoba from other provinces and territories (13,055) as there were leaving Manitoba to live in other jurisdictions (23,301). Of that number, over half are migrating to Alberta, Ontario, British Columbia. Meanwhile, Ontario, British Columbia and Alberta account for the majority of the province's inter-provincial newcomers.
Industry Trends
Show data table
| Industry (NAICS) | Employment Change('000s) | Percent Change(%) |
|---|---|---|
| Wholesale and retail trade | +6.9 | +7.5 |
| Construction | +4.7 | +9.1 |
| Public administration | +3.2 | +7.5 |
| Health care and social assistance | +2.5 | +2.4 |
| Educational services | +1.5 | +2.4 |
| Forestry, fishing, mining, quarrying, oil and gas | +1.4 | +26.9 |
| Transportation and warehousing | +1.4 | +3.5 |
| Utilities | +1.3 | +26.5 |
| Manufacturing | +1.1 | +1.6 |
| Information, culture and recreation | +0.8 | +3.5 |
| Professional, scientific and technical services | +0.7 | +2.0 |
| Finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing | +0.6 | +1.5 |
| Other services (except public administration) | -0.2 | -0.7 |
| Accommodation and food services | -0.5 | -1.4 |
| Business, building and other support services | -2.9 | -12.8 |
| Agriculture | -5.4 | -27.6 |
- While wholesale and retail trade, construction and public administration led the province in total employment gains in 2023, the most rapid growth occurred in the forestry, fishing, mining, quarrying, oil and gas and utilities.
- Agriculture lost the most employment by both volume and percentage. Despite the slow start to planting this year and variable moisture throughout the growing season, provincial crop yields were generally close to recent years' averages. Prices for cattle have stayed strong, but hog prices have been more subdued than in 2022.
- Employment in healthcare and social assistance grew 2.4% (+2,500) in 2023. However, the industry continues to suffer persistent shortages of healthcare professionals.
Regional Economic Conditions
- Employment grew across all regions in Manitoba, as the province added 17,100 jobs in 2023. The largest improvement was observed in the Southeast region, with employment increasing 5.8 percent from 2022.
- The Winnipeg region led the province in total employment growth, with 8,300 jobs added in 2023.
- Meanwhile, the Parklands and Northern and Southwest economic regions recorded the smallest employment gains at 1.2 percent and 1.1 percent respectively.
Employment Change by Economic Region, 2023
Show data table
| Economic Region | Percent Change(%) | Employment Change('000s) |
|---|---|---|
| Southeast | +5.8 | +3.8 |
| South Central and North Central | +5.1 | +3.0 |
| Manitoba | +2.5 | +17.1 |
| Interlake | +2.5 | +1.1 |
| Winnipeg | +2.0 | +8.3 |
| Parklands and Northern | +1.2 | +0.4 |
| Southwest | +1.1 | +0.6 |
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