3-year Employment Outlooks - Questions and Answers

The 3-year employment outlooks assess whether the employment outlook over the next 3 years for an occupation in a specific region is:

The ranks show how that occupation compares to others in its province, while the text provides a detailed explanation.

Note: The outlooks do not measure if there is a labour shortage for that occupation in that particular region, but the prospect of finding a job.

Outlooks are presented on the Job Bank website for each occupation, in each province, territory and economic region. The employment outlooks consist of 2 parts:

1. A star rating (out of five) to state whether the outlook for this occupation is:

Very Good	Good	Moderate	Limited	Very Limited
★★★★★	★★★★	★★★	★★	★

2. A text providing additional facts explaining what is the situation of that occupation in that region, such as the number of people working in the occupation, number of full time versus part time workers, or in which industry this occupation can be found.

The 3-year employment outlooks use an advanced economic model to analyze data and produce employment projections. These projections are made for each of the economic regions, provinces, and territories.

By using data available in all regions, statistical techniques, and knowledge from labour market specialists, the model creates a prediction of where the labour market is most likely to be in three years' time, and what that means for employment.

The model then scores each occupation using multiple factors, such as the employment growth rate by occupation, the number of people leaving the occupation, and the number of experienced individuals looking for work in the occupation. These scores are then used to give a rating out of five stars

The scores, along with facts and information about each occupation and region, are then published on Job Bank.

The main sources of information used in developing the employment outlooks includes, but is not limited to, the following:

• Census (Statistics Canada)
• Labour Force Survey (Statistics Canada)
• Employment Insurance administrative data (Employment and Social Development Canada)
• Other organizations
• Labour market news from across Canada

In the 3-year employment outlooks, there is a possibility that some occupations in certain regions will be ranked as undetermined. Undetermined is a ranking that can be given when there is no information, or not enough information, to accurately score an occupation.

• For example, if an occupation has too few people in it, then the model will be unable to accurately predict where it will go over the 3-year timeframe. In that case, the occupation will be given the rank of undetermined.

Employment outlooks are updated on Job Bank and the Government of Canada's open data portal on an annual basis, usually in November or December of the first year of the 3-year period covered.

The employment outlooks represent a 3-year period. For example, the information posted in 2023 will provide outlooks for all occupations for the years 2023, 2024 and 2025.

The outlooks process chose a 3-year forecast because it allows for accurate forecasts to be made at the occupational and regional level, while avoiding the possible disadvantages associated with longer or shorter term forecasts.

Occupations are defined by the National Occupational Classification (NOC) system. This system groups various job titles and occupations into 516 categories, allowing occupations that have similar traits to be represented as one code. 2023-25 employment outlooks are based on the NOC 2021. For more information, please visit the NOC website at National Occupational Classification - Canada.ca (esdc.gc.ca).

National Occupational Classification (NOC) system has undergone major revisions in 2021. The new NOC 2021 includes structural changes such as the addition, aggregation or merging, and splitting of unit groups as well as the reorganization of certain groups across broad occupational categories and Training, Education, Experience and Responsibilities (TEER) categories. The 3-year employment outlooks have shifted to the NOC 2021 system with the release of the 2023-2025 outlooks.

For the concordance table between NOC 2016 and NOC 2021, please visit National Occupational Classification - Canada.ca (esdc.gc.ca).

No, the employment outlooks aren't comparable nationally. Because each region and province can be experiencing vastly different labour situations, the outlooks are only comparable within the same province. This allows for local labour markets to reflect their trends without being affected by much different markets from different provinces.

The 3-year employment outlook covers each region, in each province and territory, across Canada. Each of these regions has their own labour market, which can be very different from other regions, even if they are near by. For example, if one area is mainly urban, and a nearby area is rural, they will be experiencing different labour market conditions.

The 3-year employment outlook uses a method based on statistics to project how the labour market could change over three years. These are estimates based on a proven methodology but there will always be unforeseen factors that could affect the predictions.